Publications

The mass murder as quasi-experiment : the impact of the 1996 Port Arthur massacre

Carlos A Carcach, Jenny Mouzos and Peter N Grabosky

Published in:
Homicide studies, 6(2), May 2002.

Abstract

Using a disaggregation strategy and intervention analysis, this article explores the impact of the Port Arthur Massacre on subsequent homicides in Australia. The results of the analysis indicate that the Port Arthur incident appears to have had no lasting effect on homicide in Australia. However there was an immediate increase in firearm homicides during the five days following the massacre. After this sudden increase, the incidence of homicide resumed its long term downward trend. This sudden increase can be interpreted as evidence of a contagion effect, with the significant response by the Australian Government contributing to the incidence of homicide resuming its long term trend, rather than continuing to increase.