Crime prevention series

The ageing of the Australian population

Published in:
Crime prevention for older Australians
Marianne Pinkerton James
Canberra : Australian Institute of Criminology, 1993
ISBN 0 642 18631 6 ; ISSN 1031-5330
(Crime prevention series) ; pp. 4-11

In general

Australia is experiencing rapid population ageing. This is a result of a decline in both birth levels and mortality levels as well as an increase in post-war migration. As a percentage of the total population, the number of persons aged 65 and over is projected to increase from 10.7 per cent in 1991 to about 12 per cent in 2001. By next century the change will be more marked when increases will rise to between 16 and 18 per cent in 2021, and then to between 19 and 21 per cent in 2031 (ABS 1988). Figure 1 illustrates the projected population at selected ages from 1991 to 2031.

Figure 1 - Projected population at selected ages

Source for data: Projects of the Populations of Australia States and Territories 1989 to 2031, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Cat. No. 3222.0.

The ageing of the aged population

A significant aspect of population ageing is within the aged population itself. The population aged 80 and above is the fastest growing age group. In 1991 2.1 per cent of the population was aged 80 and over, compared with 1.4 per cent in 1968 and 1.8 per cent in 1984. The number of people over 80 has increased by more than 100 per cent over the last twenty years and will double again by the year 2011 (ABS 1988a).

Between 1991 and 2031, the total population is expected to increase by 50 per cent. During the same period the 80-plus population is expected to increase by nearly four times. However, while the oldest age group will grow the most rapidly for the rest of this century, the 'young old' (those in their mid-60s to mid-70s) will become the fastest growing group in the first decade of next century as the baby boom generation starts to reach retirement age (ABS 1988a).

In contrast the proportion of the population aged between 0 and 14 years is expected to decrease in each projection year. On the other hand, the proportion of the population aged between 15 and 64 years, will increase initially and then decline from about 2010 onwards (ABS 1988a). Figure 2 illustrates the proportions of people at selected age groups from 1991 to 2031.

Figure 2 - Proportions of people at selected age groups 1991-2031 (per cent)

Data source: Projections of the Populations of Australian States and Territories 1989 to 2031, Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Who are the ageing?

The numbers and proportions of older people are only part of the story of population ageing. There is an increasing diversity within the older population of which age itself plays a crucial role. Chronological age is not a reliable guide by which to gauge what people can or cannot do. Biological age should be considered as an alternative measure. Indeed, as the health of older people improves biological age will become increasingly significant. There has been an attempt to combine the two measures with the result that the following three categories are often used. These are:

• 'Young Old' - People who can maintain a normal, active pattern or life. Usual age range: 65-74 years.
• 'Middle Old' - People with certain functional impairments who require limited assistance with certain activities but are still capable of living on their own so long as they get help. Usual age range: 75 - 85 years.
• 'Old old' - These are frail and generally so disabled as to require institutional or constant nursing care. Usual age range: over 85 years. (House of Representatives Standing Committee for Long Term Strategies 1992, p.10).

However, there are still enormous variations even within these arbitrary age groups. Once again, a certain age cannot really be taken as a criterion for determining the category to which an individual belongs. That depends on the particular person. He or she may be sprightly at 90 or incapable at 65, and must be assessed on his or her own merits. Defining what is 'normal' for any age group also creates the danger that those who are most capable will be taken as the general standard. This could create unrealistic expectations for others in that age group and disappointment if they fail to meet standards expected. It could also be problematic for others who are capable of much more. People must be judged on their personal capacities, not in accordance with what prejudices about certain ages can imply (House of Representatives Standing Committee on Long Term Strategies 1992, p.10).

Diversity of age is, in turn, reflected in the diversity of the aged population itself. This heterogeneity should have a major influence on crime prevention policies for elderly Australians and is outlined as follows.

Older women

A notable feature of Australia's ageing population is that older women will continue to outnumber older men in the future, especially in very old age. While the sex differences in life expectancy may lessen slightly in the future, it is expected that in 2001, women will make up just over 50 per cent of those aged 65 to 69 years, 56 per cent of those aged 70 to 79 years, and 68 per cent of those aged 80 or over (Kendig & McCallum 1986, p.11). This means that over the age of 80, women will outnumber men by more than two to one. Policies and attitudes, therefore, will have to be especially sensitive to the circumstances of very old women living alone.

The rural elderly

Many older people leave the city and their extended families to move to country areas when they retire. This can sometimes lead to loneliness and isolation, particularly if a spouse suddenly dies. In these circumstances older people can be more vulnerable to crimes such as fraud and confidence tricksters. When devising crime prevention programs for the rural elderly, therefore, it is important not to assume that the sense of community, which is often more developed in the country, is of equal benefit to everyone.

In fact, that same sense of community can often have a detrimental effect on rural men and women who are victims of elder abuse. The potential tyranny of a small town where everyone is known to one another can be further exacerbated by distance and lack of appropriate referral services. A sense of shame and fear of public exposure limits the opportunities for the rural elderly to obtain information about their rights and options. It is important to provide isolated older people with contacts that may best meet their particular needs and assist to balance the inequities that are sometimes faced in rural and remote Australia.

The ethnic elderly

Australia's aged population is rapidly becoming more ethnically diverse, and the overseas-born are expected to be the source of the greatest increase in the older age group in the coming decades. This is illustrated in Figure 3.

Figure 3 - Proportions of population aged 60 or over by birthplace 1981 and 2001

Data source: Kendig & McCallum 1986, Greying Australia, p. 16.

Ethnic people vary according to which community they belong. This is evident in their political, religious and social divisions. Modern day pressures apply just as equally to ethnic families as other Australian families, sometimes resulting in a breakdown of traditional practices and values which leave many older people feeling insecure and alienated. English language proficiency often decreases with age, particularly in times of stress. Although, in fact, of the 90 per cent of older people from non-English speaking countries who have lived in Australia for ten years or more, 31 per cent of the men and 44 per cent of the women speak English 'not well' or 'not at all' (Kendig 1989, p.16). Social isolation can mean that older ethnic people do not take advantage, or are perhaps not even aware, of services and programs which may be able to help them. The same isolation and language barriers can cause problems in nursing homes and in less populated areas.

The Aboriginal aged

For Aboriginal men the average life-span is 48 years. For Aboriginal women it is 55 years. Frail age begins at 35. If old age is defined as 65 years and over, then only 3 per cent of the Aboriginal population fit into this category. This compares with nearly 11 per cent of the white Australian population. Old old age, when it occurs, is therefore an extremely valuable experience for Aboriginal people. However, there are very complex social circumstances combined with severe economic deprivation interacting with all issues connected with the Aboriginal aged, and obviously different criteria need to be addressed. Nevertheless, it is of paramount importance to include older Aboriginal people in any strategies which may be devised to improve the quality of life for Australia's elderly.

The disabled aged

As people get older, it can be more likely that they may suffer from some type of disability, ranging from a hearing problem to being confined to a wheelchair. These people, particularly those who are seriously disabled or suffering from dementia, can be more vulnerable to crime. They have restricted ability to use general facilities and often require specialised services. In fact, the health of an older person is a critical determinant of the way in which they will experience old age.

The frail aged

Just over half of people aged 90-plus are living in institutions such as nursing homes or hostels. This figure reduces to around 40 per cent for people aged 85 and over. About 17 per cent of people aged 75 and over are living outside their own homes (House of Representatives Standing Committee on Community Affairs, p.84). Many of these people feel isolated from family and friends and are unable to participate fully in decisions affecting their lives.

Socioeconomic status

Status, both social and economic, are crucial factors when considering strategies relating to crime prevention for Australia's elderly. The Henderson Report (1975, p.234) revealed the largest group of people in poverty in Australia to be those over 65 years of age (60 years of age for non-married women). More specifically, 24 per cent of aged people living outside institutions are very poor; they live below the poverty line. A further 22 per cent are rather poor; they live just above the poverty line (Western 1986, p.304).

The degree of diversity within the aged population can be accommodated by adopting a multi-faceted approach to crime prevention measures. However, it is first necessary to examine the theoretical approach. This is outlined in the next chapter.