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AICrime reduction matters

No. 30: Is crime predictable?

ISSN 1448-1383
3 February 2005

Abstract

Crime forecasting has now become quite a sophisticated enterprise, and is used, with greater or lesser success, to predict recidivism amongst offenders, future crime rates or even the nature of future crimes. This paper describes four main methodologies for forecasting future crime rates and what future crimes might actually be: using demographic and economic factors; complex statistical modelling based on previous crime rates; crime mapping; and future crime 'think tanks'.