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Trends & Issues in Crime and Criminal Justice

No. 257: Researching heroin supply

Shona Morrison
ISBN 0 642 53804 2 ; ISSN 0817-8542
June 2003

Abstract

This paper focuses on the role of research in assessing what impact changes in the supply of heroin from source countries might have on heroin markets. Noting the lack of research interest in 'beyond the border' drug supply indicators, the paper summarises what we do know about supply routes for heroin into the US, Europe and Australia, highlighting the role of the 'Golden Triangle' region and Afghanistan, and discusses some of the factors driving these trends. After exploring the potential and limitations of existing drug supply indicators, the paper argues that there are opportunities in research for making better use of supply side data and, in the longer term, for improving the quality of information on drug supply. The paper concludes by presenting an illustrative theory of heroin supply, based on the two dimensions of openness of opium cultivation in the source countries and perceived trafficking costs, with a view to providing a framework for subsequent data collection and research.

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