Forecasting prisoner numbers: a computer model for correctional administrators

Walker, John
ISBN
0642868980
Published Date
Subject
Prisons
Trends
Corrections costs
Diversion
Series
Archive
Abstract

This monograph is designed to assist in the identification of future trends in prisoner numbers, both in the presence and absence of diversionary policies, such as community-based corrections or prisoner early-release schemes.

Contents

  • List of tables
  • List of figures
  • Acknowledgments
  • Foreword
  • Part I - The key features of a corrections forecasting model
    • Introduction
    • Forecasting the future age/sex distribution of the population
    • The number of persons proceeded against
    • The disposition of convicted persons
    • The determination of time actually served in prison
    • Security classifications of prisoners
    • What to do about remandees
    • The treatment of non-custodial corrections
  • Part II - The operational logic of the Oracle Model
    • The model's ancestors
    • The model's mechanisms
  • Part III - Use and results of the model
    • Obtaining a 'base run'
    • Initial variations on the base run
    • Selected scenarios
    • Implications for the security classification system
    • Non-custodial options for adult offenders
  • Part IV - Conclusion
  • References
  • Appendices
    • Glossary of key variables
    • The Programs (written in CYBER 76 Fortran)
    • The population projections
    • The results (base run)